As I sit here watching the Baylor Bears' spring practice footage, I can't help but reflect on the emotional weight of Coach Dave Aranda's recent comments about the upcoming season. When quarterback Blake Shapen transferred to Mississippi State, Aranda quoted the musician Pre, saying, "I believe that leaving and saying 'goodbye' is never easy and accepting things is the most painful part." That sentiment echoes through the entire program as we approach what might be the most challenging season in recent Baylor football history. Having covered this team for over a decade, I've seen coaching changes, player departures, and program rebuilds, but this year feels different somehow - like we're standing at a crucial crossroads that could define Baylor football for years to come.
The quarterback situation represents perhaps the most immediate concern. With Shapen's departure, the Bears lost a player who started 28 games over two seasons, completing 63.2% of his passes for 5,574 yards. Those aren't just numbers - they represent stability and experience that's incredibly difficult to replace. I've watched every snap of spring practice, and while Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson shows flashes of brilliance, there's an undeniable learning curve as he adapts to Baylor's offensive system. The reality is that quarterback transitions in the Big 12 are brutal - just look at Texas' struggles after Sam Ehlinger departed or Oklahoma's adjustment period when Baker Mayfield moved on. Robertson completed just 44.4% of his passes in limited action last season, and while I believe he has tremendous upside, expecting him to immediately match Shapen's production might be unrealistic. What worries me more than raw statistics is the leadership vacuum - Shapen knew this offense inside and out, and his relationships with receivers took years to develop. That chemistry doesn't happen overnight, no matter how talented the replacement might be.
Then there's the defensive reconstruction that keeps me up at night. Baylor surrendered 29.5 points per game last season, ranking 98th nationally, and lost three key starters to the NFL draft. As someone who's studied Baylor defenses since the Art Briles era, I can tell you that the drop-off in pass rush effectiveness is particularly concerning. The Bears recorded only 22 sacks last season compared to 34 the previous year, and with defensive linemen like Siaki Ika moving on to the professional ranks, generating pressure becomes even more challenging. I remember watching games last season where opposing quarterbacks had what felt like eternity in the pocket, and unless the new defensive line rotation proves unexpectedly dominant, this could remain a significant vulnerability. The secondary, while talented, features mostly young players who will need time to develop the instinctual understanding that comes with experience. In a conference known for explosive offenses, defensive growing pains can quickly turn into defensive disasters.
What really gives me pause, though, is the schedule itself. Baylor faces both Oklahoma and Texas in their final Big 12 seasons before moving to the SEC - two programs loaded with talent and motivated to make statements in their conference farewell tour. Then there's the road game at Kansas State, where the Bears haven't won since 2019, and a tricky neutral-site opener against Texas State that's far more dangerous than casual observers might assume. Having traveled to many of these venues over the years, I can attest to how significantly road environments impact young teams, and Baylor's travel schedule includes some of the most hostile atmospheres in college football. The mid-season stretch featuring back-to-back road games at Cincinnati and Kansas State particularly concerns me - both programs are on the rise, and catching them in consecutive weeks could expose any lingering conditioning or depth issues.
Yet despite these challenges, I find myself surprisingly optimistic about this team's potential. Why? Because I've watched Dave Aranda work magic before. Remember the 2021 season when Baylor won the Big 12 championship despite being picked to finish eighth in the preseason poll? That team had its own set of obstacles, including significant roster turnover and skepticism from analysts like myself. Aranda has proven he can develop talent and implement creative schemes that maximize his players' strengths. The running back room, featuring Richard Reese and Mississippi State transfer Jo'Quavious Marks, might be among the deepest in the conference, and in a league where controlling possession often determines outcomes, having multiple reliable ball carriers provides a crucial safety net. Reese rushed for 1,020 yards as a freshman in 2022 before dealing with injuries last season, while Marks accumulated 1,382 career rushing yards in the SEC - that's legitimate production against elite competition.
The offensive line returns four starters with combined 87 career starts, providing the kind of veteran presence that can stabilize an entire offense. Having spoken with several of these players during spring practices, I was struck by their maturity and understanding of what needs to improve after last season's disappointing 6-7 finish. They've added muscle while maintaining athleticism, and their cohesion should help ease the transition at quarterback. In the trenches, experience often trumps raw talent, and Baylor has that in abundance along the offensive front. Defensively, while there are legitimate concerns, the linebacker corps featuring Matt Jones and returning contributors possesses the speed and football IQ to anchor the unit while younger players develop. Jones led the team with 85 tackles last season despite missing two games, and his leadership will be invaluable as the defense finds its identity.
Ultimately, whether Baylor overcomes its 2023 challenges comes down to how quickly the team embraces Aranda's philosophy of resilience and adaptation. That quote about the pain of acceptance isn't just about player departures - it's about accepting that last season's results don't define this team, accepting that the path forward requires difficult adjustments, and accepting that growth often emerges from discomfort. I've seen this program navigate tougher situations, including the complete cultural overhaul following the Briles era, and emerge stronger for it. The Bears won't likely contend for a national championship this season, but with a favorable bounce or two and accelerated development from key newcomers, reaching 8-9 wins remains plausible. The foundation is there - the question is whether the pieces coalesce quickly enough to capitalize on a schedule that, while challenging, provides opportunities for statement victories. Having witnessed Baylor football's resilience time and again, I'm leaning toward betting on this team to exceed expectations, even if the journey includes some early growing pains. Sometimes the most painful goodbyes - to departed players, to last season's expectations, to the comfort of established roles - create space for the most meaningful hellos to new possibilities.
